The presidential election and place

Written By H. Pike Oliver

The biggest geodemographic news of the 2024 U.S. presidential election is clearly highlighted by a chart Philip Bump of the Washington Post included in his How to Read This Chart column of November 9, 2024. It highlighted the shift in Democratic and Republican vote margins between 2020 to 2024 on a county-by-county basis.

There are 3,143 counties and county-equivalents in the United States. The Republican candidate improved his 2020 vote margins in more than 2,300 counties, compared with the Democratic candidate, improving 2020 margins in fewer than 300 counties.

The chart highlights that the most significant shifts toward the Republican candidate occurred in large urban counties where the White population is less than 50% of the total. These counties are represented by the large purple circles in the lower right portion of the chart.

The vote shift in large urban counties with a minority White population will likely result in significant shifts in various federal policies, especially climate change, criminal justice, defense, immigration, and public health.

H. Pike Oliver

Born and raised in the San Francisco Bay Area, H. Pike Oliver has worked on real estate development strategies and master-planned communities since the early 1970s, including nearly eight years at the Irvine Company. He resided in the City of Irvine for five years in the 1980s and nine years in the 1990s.

As the founder and sole proprietor of URBANEXUS, Oliver works on advancing equitable and sustainable real estate development and natural lands management. He is also an affiliate instructor at the Runstad Department of Real Estate at the University of Washington.

Early in his career, Oliver worked for public agencies, including the California Governor’s Office of Planning and Research where he was a principal contributor to An Urban Strategy for California. Prior to relocating to Seattle in 2013, Oliver taught real estate development at Cornell University and directed the undergraduate program in urban and regional studies. He is a member of the Urban Land Institute, the American Planning Association and a founder and emeritus member of the California Planning Roundtable.

Oliver is a graduate of the urban studies and planning program at San Francisco State University and earned a master’s degree in urban planning at UCLA.

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